Date: Mon, 28 Aug 2006 14:30:31 -0400

From: Daniel Leviton <dleviton@UMD.EDU>

Subject: Fw: Why drought overshadows world growth - a series on water shortages

** Submit to the HEDIR Tech Seminar

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FYI

Professor Daniel Leviton, ret.

Founder & Former Director, The Adult Health & Development Program

University of Maryland at College Park

2007 Pelden Road

Adelphi, MD 20783

Phone and fax: 301-445-1546

----- Original Message -----

From: "Daniel Leviton" <dleviton@umd.edu>

To: "Health Promotion List" <hlthprom@lists.wisc.edu>

Sent: Monday, August 28, 2006 2:27 PM

Subject: Fw: Why drought overshadows world growth - a series on water

shortages

> fyi

>

> Professor Daniel Leviton, ret.

> Founder & Former Director, The Adult Health & Development Program

> University of Maryland at College Park

> 2007 Pelden Road

> Adelphi, MD 20783

> Phone and fax: 301-445-1546

> ----- Original Message -----

> From: "Daniel Leviton" <dleviton@umd.edu>

> To: "Geriatric Health Care Discussion Group"

> <GERINET@LISTSERV.BUFFALO.EDU>

> Sent: Sunday, August 27, 2006 12:35 PM

> Subject: Re: Why drought overshadows world growth - a series on water

> shortages

>

>

>> Kathrynne, delighted to read your post re drought -- need more of the

>> same on Gerinet. Environmental degradation and assaults are just one

>> people-caused source of premature suffering and death that could be

>> prevented if we put our collective minds to the task. Others include

>> premature mortality and morbidity due to terrorism and war, homicide,

>> genocide, racism, drug misuse, etc. I use the umbrella term, "horrendous

>> death (HD)" of which there are 3 types: 1. Where the motivation exists to

>> kill others (e.g., terrorism-war), 2. where that motivation is lacking

>> (e.g., tobacco and alcohol related deaths), and 3. where the cause of HD

>> is caused by both people and "nature". e.g., Katrina. One wonders why

>> there is so little in the geriatric or gerontological literature on

>> prevention? Of course, part of it has to do with denial or ambivalence -

>> the shifting between denial and reality.

>>

>> All generations suffer the effects of HD. For example, how do parents and

>> grandparents cope with the deaths (euphemistally called "casualties"),

>> suicide, or acute disabilities suffered by their children or

>> grandchildren in the military?

>>

>> Gerontology and geriatrics are not alone. My other profession, health

>> promotion, could do more to prevent the forms of HD -- in my opinion,

>> they are the greatest threat to health and well-being of our time.

>>

>> Dan

>> ----- Original Message -----

>> From: "Kathrynne Holden, MS, RD" <fivestar@NUTRITIONUCANLIVEWITH.COM>

>> Newsgroups: bit.listserv.gerinet

>> To: <GERINET@LISTSERV.BUFFALO.EDU>

>> Sent: Sunday, August 27, 2006 9:54 AM

>> Subject: Why drought overshadows world growth - a series on water

>> shortages

>>

>>

>>> Colleagues, the following is a series on predictions of drought, water

>>> shortages, and the implications for health, environment, economies, and

>>> politics. It is long; delete if not interested. Best, Kathrynne

>>> ---------------------------------------------------------

>>>

>>> Why drought overshadows world growth

>>>

>>> By Fiona Harvey

>>>

>>> Published: March 20 2006 21:32 | Last updated: March 20 2006 21:32

>>> Drought

>>>

>>> The next war, according to the doom-mongers, will be fought over oil.

>>> But could water provide the flashpoint instead? The question is no

>>> longer outlandish.

>>>

>>> Around the world there are signs that competition for dwindling water

>>> supplies is producing conflict or the threat of conflict. Notably, water

>>> is at the heart of Middle East tensions, touching Israel and the

>>> Palestinian territories, Syria, Lebanon and Jordan. All have rights to

>>> the Jordan river on which they rely for agriculture, drinking and

>>> sanitation.

>>>

>>> "If you stand back and look at the past 50 years, all these parties have

>>> been competing with each other for resources," says David Phillips, a

>>> British water adviser to the Palestinian Authority. "There have been

>>> some agreements but essentially they’ve been competing in a zero-sum

>>> game."

>>>

>>> Other danger spots include those around the Nile, Niger and Zambezi

>>> rivers in Africa and Syria’s dispute with Turkey over the damming by

>>> Ankara of the Tigris and Euphrates. Even in areas where there is no

>>> growth.

>>>

>>> Potentially catastrophic water shortages loom not only for Africa but

>>> over much of Europe this summer. Now the race is on to broker

>>> international solutions before drought turns to disaster for the world

>>> economy.

>>>

>>> The statistics are enough to transfix economists as well as

>>> environmentalists. The lack of clean water and basic sanitation that

>>> afflicts up to 40 per cent of the world’s population knocks at least

>>> $556bn (£317bn, €458bn) a year off the world’s potential economic

>>> 1 per cent of global gross domestic product.

>>>

>>> A report by the World Bank into a drought in Kenya between 1998 and 2000

>>> found that GDP there was reduced by 16 per cent as a direct result.

>>> Drought currently threatens the survival of 11m people in and around

>>> Somalia and Ethiopia. But the knock-on effects are felt widely. For

>>> instance, the income of fish sellers in countries such as Tanzania is

>>> suffering because a lack of ice means the fish spoil before they can be

>>> shipped abroad.

>>>

>>> Even in developed countries, water shortages can be economically

>>> devastating. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration says

>>> America’s annual economic losses from drought are estimated at

>>> Europe’s severe water shortages in 2003 cost the region’s economies

>>> $13bn, mainly as a result of a sharp reduction in agricultural output.

>>>

>>> Where there is enough water to go around, mismanagement, poor governance

>>> and unfair distribution still mean some people go thirsty while others

>>> sip Evian by swimming pools.

>>>

>>> But why has water suddenly emerged as such an alarming stress point for

>>> the world economy? One culprit is climate change, which is decreasing

>>> the amount of water in some regions, such as sub-saharan Africa, but is

>>> causing floods in areas where glaciers are melting.

>>>

>>> In addition, the demands of modern agriculture are remorseless. It takes

>>> 1,000 tonnes of water to produce a tonne of grain. Industry is also

>>> thirsty: activities from food processing to semiconductor manufacturing

>>> rapidly industrialising countries.

>>>

>>> The pollution of clean water supplies, whether by salt, by human or

>>> animal waste or by toxins released from industrial processes, is also an

>>> people, nearly a quarter of the population, is contaminated, often by

>>> harmful chemicals, according to the Xinhua state news agency.

>>>

>>> A lack of clean fresh water is one of the few problems that could put a

>>> brake on the runaway growth of India and China, says Bjorn Stigson,

>>> president of the World Business Council for Sustainable Development: "It

>>> is clear to me, from conversations with Chinese officials, that this is

>>> probably the biggest problem China faces."

>>>

>>> Yet business is also sensing opportunities. The wave of water

>>> privatisations around the world in the 1990s had appeared to be

>>> subsiding but now pressures on water use have piqued companies’

>>> currently run by the private sector, according to Suez Environnement,

>>> part of the French utilities group.

>>>

>>> The potential market runs to hundreds of billions of dollars. But if

>>> market forces and the power of private capital were brought to bear,

>>> would the result be more efficient distribution and exploitation of the

>>> world’s water resources? Or would a private-sector bonanza result in a

>>> polarisation of resources, skewed even more towards the rich while the

>>> poor die without sanitation?

>>>

>>> The issue is stirring controversy at this week’s World Water Forum in

>>> Mexico City, where ministers and policy-makers are debating solutions to

>>> the crisis. Some organisations resist the involvement of the private

>>> sector on ideological grounds.

>>>

>>> The Globalisation Institute, a rightwing think tank, has published a

>>> report calling for greater private-sector involvement in water

>>> management, arguing that this would increase access to clean water and

>>> sanitation. But the World Development Movement, an anti-poverty

>>> campaigning group, in a separate report argues the opposite, declaring

>>> it is "a myth that water privatisation has led to increased access to

>>> water and reduced costs".

>>>

>>> There is right on both sides, says Tom Lequesne, fresh water policy

>>> officer at WWF, the environmental campaigning group. He says: "It’s

>>> entirely specific to the context. You can get some plans that work but

>>> also there are parts of the world where water privatisation is very

>>> controversial."

>>>

>>> What separates effective private-sector ventures from the failures is a

>>> strong regulatory environment, according to David Redhouse, policy

>>> officer at the charity WaterAid. He says: "Where you have a strong

>>> regulatory sector, you can make sure that the interests of everyone,

>>> including the poorest people, are taken into account."

>>>

>>> Moreover, private-sector involvement could end some of the most

>>> grotesque distortions of water pricing, says Jean-Louis Chaussade, chief

>>> executive of Suez Environnement. He cites street vendors in places such

>>> as India and parts of south America, saying: "Poor people end up paying

>>> 10 times more for their water than the rich, who get it out of a tap."

>>>

>>> A few simple techniques could do much to alleviate the mismatch between

>>> water demand and supply, says Mr Chaussade. The most important is the

>>> reuse of water: treating sewage so that it can be safely put back into

>>> rivers, used for irrigation or deployed in industrial processes. It can

>>> even be injected into underground water tables to restore them.

>>>

>>> Chart

>>>

>>> For instance, a sewage plant finished this year in San Luis Potosi in

>>> Mexico will make it possible to treat 80,000 cubic metres a day of the

>>> waste water produced by the city. Then, 60 per cent of the water, having

>>> undergone physical and chemical treatment, will be distributed to

>>> farmers and the remainder will undergo further biological treatment and

>>> be used as a coolant for the power station in nearby Reyes.

>>>

>>> Scant attention is paid by many industries to reusing their water. And

>>> educating water users can go a long way towards reducing demand. Most of

>>> the world’s water use is in agriculture and farmers can be taught better

>>> water management techniques. Those can be as simple as the correct

>>> siting of ditches, better methods of collecting rainwater or ploughing

>>> a field along its contours rather than up and down so that water and

>>> valuable topsoil do not wash down the furrows when it rains.

>>>

>>> Desalination is another technical option for creating fresh water from

>>> the sea but it remains relatively expensive. Spain plans to build more

>>> than 20 desalination plants on its parched southern coast in the next

>>> few years, which will run during periods of peak demand such as the

>>> tourist season.

>>>

>>> energy. That in turn gives rise to greenhouse gas emissions which worsen

>>> the water problem by hastening climate change.

>>>

>>> Companies have been finding ways around this, such as using the heat

>>> produced by power stations to create steam, which can be condensed, or

>>> by using renewable energy sources for the power. Perth, in Australia, is

>>> using wind turbines to power its desalination plant.

>>>

>>> Another option for reducing water demand is one that many

>>> environmentalists eschew. Crops can be genetically modified to render

>>> them more suitable for growing in areas of low rainfall or high

>>> salinity.

>>>

>>> All these techniques are likely to become vital as the global population

>>> heads towards 9bn by 2050. The health not only of countless individuals

>>> but also of the world economy may depend on it.

>>>

>>> Additional reporting by Sharmila Devi

>>>

>>>

>>> Hot, dry summers likely to become the norm

>>>

>>> By Andrew Bounds and Fiona Harvey

>>>

>>> Published: August 10 2006 03:00 | Last updated: August 10 2006 03:00

>>>

>>> This year's hot, dry summer will be repeated many times in the future

>>> and will become normal in the next 40 to 50 years if climate scientists

>>> are correct, write Fiona Harvey in London and Andrew Bounds in Brussels.

>>>

>>> The Hadley Centre, a research centre at the UK's Met Office, has

>>> predicted that over the next 80 years, Europe will experience 50 per

>>> cent less rainfall in summer and 30 per cent more rainfall in winter.

>>>

>>> The areas around the Mediterranean will be worst hit by the hotter,

>>> drier summers, while rainfall in winter will be more likely to come in

>>> the form of heavy storms.

>>>

>>> "Mediterranean countries have to decide if they want agriculture or

>>> tourism," says a senior European Commission official.

>>>

>>> In 2000, of total water extraction in Europe, agriculture used on

>>> average 32 per cent, electricity cooling 31 per cent, manufacturing 13

>>> per cent and households 24 per cent. In Belgium and Germany, two-thirds

>>> of water is abstracted for cooling towers at power stations, whereas in

>>> southern countries, the main user is agriculture.

>>>

>>> Water companies will face serious difficulties in satisfying demand

>>> during the worsening summer droughts to come. One seemingly simple

>>> solution would be to move water from where it is abundant to dry areas.

>>> But water is heavy, and therefore expensive and difficult to transport

>>> over long distances in the quantities that would be needed.

>>>

>>> Better storage of water, in reservoirs, will be a necessity, says Pete

>>> Falloon, climate impact scientist at the Hadley Centre. Water companies

>>> may also have to upgrade much of their pipework because of the

>>> increasing incidence of subsidence and heave caused by land drying out.

>>>

>>> Desalination could be part of the solution but it uses vast quantities

>>> of energy, thereby producing carbon dioxide and contributing to climate

>>> change unless powered by wind turbines rather than fossil fuels.

>>>

>>> The long-term answer, according to Mr Falloon, is to cut down on waste

>>> and use water more efficiently.

>>>

>>> Farmers will also have to grow different crops. Scientists are

>>> developing varieties of common crops that are more resistant to drought.

>>>

>>> Industry will also be affected. Rising temperatures will mean greater

>>> demand for cooling water.

>>>

>>> In some northern countries, such as the UK, electricity consumption

>>> patterns are already beginning to shift, with more energy being used in

>>> summer as air conditioning becomes more popular.

>>>

>>> Power generators may have to change the scheduling of their downtime and

>>> maintenance, which currently take place in summer.

>>>

>>>

>>> Water pollution ‘worsening across China’

>>>

>>> By Andrew Yeh in Beijing

>>>

>>> Published: August 22 2006 13:30 | Last updated: August 23 2006 02:50

>>>

>>> Water pollution is worsening in urban areas across China, despite heavy

>>> investment in new wastewater treatment facilities, a senior government

>>> official said on Tuesday.

>>>

>>> Cities need to do more to conserve and treat water if they are to avoid

>>> crises, according to Qiu Baoxing, vice minister of construction. "This

>>> is a critical point in time - we are at a crossroads," he said.

>>>

>>> Mr Qiu said that China would spend Rmb1,000bn ($125bn) over the next

>>> five years on water projects. This includes around Rmb330bn to construct

>>> urban wastewater treatment facilities and Rmb320bn for two major

>>> south-north water diversion projects.

>>>

>>> China’s water problems, specifically high pollution levels and

>>> persistent droughts, are set to continue in the years ahead despite

>>> Beijing’s plans to sharply expand water-related infrastructure.

>>>

>>> In recent weeks, scorching temperatures have caused a drought in the

>>> has decimated crops and caused drinking water shortages for millions of

>>> residents.

>>>

>>> Waterways contaminated by urban household and industrial wastewater

>>> discharges have developed into a major worry for Beijing and local

>>> governments. In many areas, depleted groundwater levels are also causing

>>> the ground to sink.

>>>

>>> According to the Ministry of Construction, which is in charge of city

>>> planning policy, China’s urban wastewater treatment rate jumped to 52

>>> per cent last year from 34 per cent in 2000.

>>>

>>> However, the ministry admits many wastewater plants are operating at

>>> partial capacity, the collection of wastewater treatment fees is often

>>> irregular and pipe networks are often old or incomplete. It is leading

>>> an effort to repair 50-year-old pipe networks prone to leakage in urban

>>> areas by the end of next year.

>>>

>>> Mr Qiu admitted over-population and relentless economic growth were

>>> posing a serious threat to water resources in many cities and towns.

>>> "Our overall urban water environment is in the process of worsening," he

>>> said.

>>>

>>> "The next few years will be the time when Chinese cities will see the

>>> fastest urbanisation and when industrialisation will proceed most

>>> swiftly," Mr Qiu said. "This period is when water pollution will be most

>>> serious."

>>>

>>> He said the central government needed to intensify its supervision of

>>> water-related industries while opening the market to more foreign and

>>> private investment.

>>>

>>> "The market has not fully played its fundamental role," he said. "Now is

>>> the peak period for investment."

>>>

>>> But Zhang Yue, another ministry official, estimated that foreign

>>> investment in China’s urban water sector was less than 10 per cent of

>>> the total.

>>>

>>>

>>> Declining water supply brings a deluge of ideas

>>>

>>> By Mike A Scott

>>>

>>> Published: August 17 2006 18:29 | Last updated: August 17 2006 18:29

>>>

>>> We live in a world in which 2.6bn people consume water from unsafe and

>>> polluted sources, according to United Nations figures. Against this, it

>>> takes up to 100,000 litres to produce 1kg of beef, 75 litres to make one

>>> computer chip and 780 litres to create one litre of fruit juice, says

>>> "embedded water".

>>>

>>> These realities are now colliding, with serious consequences for

>>> business. "Everyone understands that water is essential to life. But

>>> many are just beginning to grasp how essential it is to everything in

>>> and virtually all products used on a daily basis," says Lloyd Timberlake

>>> of the World Business Council for Sustainable Development, a business

>>> think-tank, which next week launches a report on the subject.

>>>

>>> Ford Motor’s Southampton plant, for instance, uses 6,000 litres of water

>>> to make one Ford Transit van, including body construction, painting,

>>> trimming and final assembly. But Waterwise says the total figure is

>>> 150,000 litres if you include the water that goes into processing the

>>> van’s components.

>>>

>>> In the developed world, much of the water infrastructure must be

>>> replaced in the next 20 years, according to the Pacific Institute, a US

>>> think-tank, but other regions are at risk of more severe water supply

>>> problems.

>>>

>>> In India, urban water demand is due to double and industrial demand to

>>> triple by 2025. Unreliable supply in Bangalore has already led

>>> information technology companies such as Wipro, iGate and MphasiS to

>>> consider other locations when they expand, says the Pacific Institute,

>>> while in 2003 PepsiCo and Coca-Cola lost their licences to use ground

>>> water in Kerala for their bottling plants after drought raised

>>> competition for the resource.

>>>

>>> This month, they have faced calls for a ban in India after a report

>>> alleged their products contained high levels of pesticides. Coca-Cola

>>> was recently dropped from pension fund TIAA-Cref’s Social Choice

>>> Account, partly because of concerns over its exploitation of water

>>> around the world.

>>>

>>> Companies must be aware of the vulnerability of their supply chains in

>>> sectors as diverse as textiles, electronics and consumer products.

>>> "Water as a business risk issue is something that we will be looking at

>>> more and more over the next few years," says Nick Robins, head of

>>> socially responsible investment funds at Henderson Global Investors.

>>>

>>> This explains why a company such as Unilever has initiatives ranging

>>> from a detergent that requires less rinsing for the Indian market to

>>> support for tomato farmers in Brazil to introduce drip irrigation, which

>>> cuts water use by 30 to 70 per cent, while increasing crop yields by 20

>>> to 90 per cent, according to the World Resources Institute.

>>>

>>> But there are also ample opportunities for business. The first issue to

>>> address if you want to reduce water use is how much you currently use,

>>> so organisations that provide metering systems, such as Itron of the US

>>> and Techem of Germany, are well placed.

>>>

>>> Companies are also thriving by offering innovations in infrastructure

>>> replacement, filtration, irrigation and desalination. Amiad, an Israeli

>>> company listed on AIM, is doing well out of filtration and irrigation,

>>> and making inroads with drip irrigation systems that deliver fertiliser

>>> as well as water, saving on fertiliser and labour costs.

>>>

>>> Developed countries will spend up to $1,000bn on upgrading water and

>>> waste water systems in the next few decades, says Emma Howard Boyd, head

>>> of SRI at Jupiter Asset Management, while "demand for water from urban

>>> areas and industry in China is expected to grow by 70 per cent and 104

>>> per cent respectively between 2010 and 2030". Among those poised to

>>> benefit are Asian water treatment companies such as HyFlux and Biotreat,

>>> both listed in Singapore.

>>>

>>> Other innovators include Canada-based Pure Technologies, which has

>>> developed the SmartBall, an aluminium sphere equipped with a sensor,

>>> which travels along a pipeline pinpointing the location of leaks as it

>>> goes.

>>>

>>> Insituform, a US-based company, has developed trenchless sewer repair

>>> technology that allows utilities to repair pipes without digging up

>>> roads.

>>>

>>> It has worked in settings as varied as underneath the White House, in

>>> nuclear power plants and a Texas prison, which was keen to repair its

>>> pipes without putting temptation in the inmates’ way.

>>>

>>> Zander Group, a UK company, uses a moisture-retaining material to

>>> encourage desert reversal and revegetation. It works by releasing

>>> moisture to root systems over a prolonged period, reducing the need for

>>> irrigation or rainfall.

>>>

>>> Its subsidiary, Clear Earth, will also use the material as an underlying

>>> layer for pavements and car parks, where it filters contaminants out of

>>> water run-off and allows the water time to filter back to the ground

>>> water rather than running off down the drain.

>>>

>>> James Cameron, vice-chairman of Climate Change Capital, a UK bank

>>> focused on low-carbon projects, says: "Managing water will be a premium

>>> business to be in."

>>>

>>> Food

>>>

>>> It takes 200 litres of water to produce 1kg of rice

>>>

>>> 1kg of potatoes: 500 litres

>>>

>>> 1 orange: 53 litres

>>>

>>> 1 serving of lettuce: 22 litres

>>>

>>> 1 pint of milk: 250 litres

>>>

>>> 1 egg: 450 litres

>>>

>>> 1 loaf of bread: 550 litres

>>>

>>> 1 kg of butter: 18,000 litres

>>>

>>> Textiles and consumer goods

>>>

>>> 1kg of cotton: 5,300 litres

>>>

>>> 1kg of wool: 200,000 litres

>>>

>>> 1 car: 150,000 litres

>>>

>>> 1 computer chip: 75 litres

>>>

>>> Sources: Waterwise, Stanford University

>>>

>>>

>>> Drought-stricken Europe verging on 'natural disaster'

>>>

>>> By Tony Barber, Andrew Bounds, Victoria Burnett, Jan Cienski, Fiona

>>> Harvey, Peggy Hollinger and Gerrit Wiesmann

>>>

>>> Published: August 10 2006 03:00 | Last updated: August 10 2006 03:00

>>>

>>> As Europe wilts under a blistering sun, water levels in the region's

>>> rivers and reservoirs are plummeting. The night skies over Spain's

>>> forests glow orange with deadly wildfires. Cracked mud-flats border

>>> shrinking waterways. Fish lie stranded on the dry beds of lakes and

>>> rivers.

>>>

>>> Water levels on parts of Italy's longest and most commercially vital

>>> river, the Po - which has stirred awe with the fury of its floods - have

>>> dropped to their lowest in living memory. On the Rhine, Europe's busiest

>>> waterway, low waters have forced ships to carry less cargo and make up

>>> for lost revenue with surcharges of up to 50 per cent. Spain's

>>> reservoirs were filled to just 45 per cent of capacity as of August 7,

>>> and in one case to 13 per cent, approaching the point at which only

>>> unusable sludge remains.

>>>

>>> Desperate to conserve water, Paris has for the first time decided not to

>>> dampen the dusty paths of its public gardens. English gardeners are

>>> banned from using hosepipes, while swimming pools remain empty in many

>>> Spanish towns.

>>>

>>> Farmers predict a sharp fall in crops and face losses of billions of

>>> euros. In Italy, the Agricultural Confederation, a farmers' association,

>>> says production of beets, maize, rice and animal fodder will approach

>>> record lows, while the grape harvest is expected to be the lowest in two

>>> decades. Italy's farmers calculate losses so far this year at €500m

>>> ($644m, £337m). Ermete Realacci, head of a parliamentary environment

>>> committee, said the agricultural emergency was "verging on a natural

>>> disaster".

>>>

>>> In Spain, where farmers face watering restrictions of up to 60 per cent,

>>> the cereal crop is set to be 17 per cent lower than the average over the

>>> past five years. Smaller harvests are expected in Germany and Poland,

>>> where the government has promised up to 500m zlotys (€128m) to support

>>> farmers who lose more than a third of their income because of drought.

>>>

>>> The baking sun has ripened some crops early, forcing farmers to leave

>>> fruit and vegetables unharvested. In the UK - the world's second biggest

>>> frozen pea producer - some growers have had to leave 20 per cent of

>>> their harvest in the field to be taken up when dry for animal feed.

>>>

>>> Spanish farmers are planting fewer thirsty crops such as wheat, corn and

>>> rice and, in the parched province of Valencia, are digging up small

>>> trees to sell for ornamental use. The French ecology ministry says a 20

>>> per cent drop in the farmland devoted to corn over the past four years

>>> has saved 360m cubic metres of water - the consumption of 6m people.

>>>

>>> French livestock farmers have been forced to dig into their winter

>>> stocks of hay, says Jean-Michel Delmas of the French agricultural union

>>> FNSEA. He warns that stress caused by the heat has thrown cattle off

>>> their usual fertility cycles and veal production could fall 10-15 per

>>> cent.

>>>

>>> The European Commission has given permission to farmers in nine

>>> countries - including France, Italy, Germany and Spain - to graze

>>> livestock on "set-aside" land normally off limits until August 31 to

>>> prevent over-production.

>>>

>>> The drought is not bad news for every farmer.In the UK, harvests of some

>>> soft fruit are expected tobe bigger than normal,as is winter-sown

>>> barley, while farmers whose crops escape damage cancommand higher

>>> prices.

>>>

>>> With forests dry as tinder, thousands of hectares of trees have fallen

>>> prey to fire in Portugal and Spain. One hundred fires raged in northern

>>> Spain this week, killing at least three people.

>>>

>>> Lower hydroelectric and nuclear output has forced some countries to

>>> crank up more costly oil-burning generators, sending energy prices

>>> soaring.

>>>

>>> The heat has warmed the rivers on which Germany, Belgium and France rely

>>> to cool power plants. With the temperature of the Rhine last month

>>> reaching 28°C in places, Germany restricted the amount of cooling water

>>> nuclear power stations could siphon from tributaries. France raised the

>>> temperature ceiling at which power stations are allowed to drain water

>>> into rivers, but EDF, the country's largest electricity producer, was

>>> nonetheless forced to import power.

>>>

>>> The drought has exposed some countries' mismanagement of the little

>>> water available. Italy has relatively high rainfall but some experts

>>> estimate 40 per cent of supplies are lost through leaking

>>> infrastructure.

>>>

>>> Spain's environment ministry says at least 80 per cent of water used for

>>> agriculture is wasted. The sector consumes about 75 per cent of the

>>> country's water - double the average in the EU - but accounts for only 5

>>> per cent of gross domestic product.

>>>

>>> The World Wildlife Fund this month called for an end to farming

>>> subsidies for water-dependent crops such as sugar beet, blaming them for

>>> soaring water consumption.

>>>

>>> With droughts expected to hit Europe with growing frequency and parts of

>>> the Mediterranean region at high risk of desertification, long-term

>>> fixes remain elusive. The Spanish government is building 25 desalination

>>> plants in a bid to boost supply but the plants are voracious consumers

>>> of energy and the water they produce is expensive.

>>>

>>> Environmentalists say governments must invest in reservoirs, better

>>> water canals, alternative energy sources and more efficient irrigation

>>> systems. Until they do, they can exhortconsumers to turn offthe tap - or

>>> turn it offthemselves.

>>>

>>> Reporting by Victoria Burnett in Madrid, Peggy Hollinger in Paris, Tony

>>> Barber in Rome, Jan Cienski in Warsaw, Gerrit Wiesmann in Frankfurt,

>>> Fiona Harvey in London, Andrew Bounds in Brussels

>>>

>>>

>>> Companies are pouring money down the drain

>>>

>>> By Fiona Harvey

>>>

>>> Published: July 27 2006 19:34 | Last updated: July 27 2006 19:34

>>>

>>> Fixing a dripping tap can save an average of 528,000 litres of water in

>>> typically, save a company several hundred pounds in water bills, making

>>> it worthwhile to send someone in with a wrench.

>>>

>>> In large swathes of Europe and the US, as well as south America, drought

>>> has encouraged formerly carefree companies to pay more attention to

>>> water efficiency. Businesses already have a good financial incentive to

>>> save water, and in time of drought they also face moral pressure and the

>>> threat of regulatory enforcement.

>>>

>>> Waterwise, a charity funded by water companies in the UK that aims to

>>> reduce water wastage, estimates that water costs companies on average

>>> about 1 to 2 per cent of their turnover per year. But in companies that

>>> have not taken steps to save water, about a third is often wasted.

>>>

>>> A good first step, therefore, is to take a "water audit" to examine how

>>> much the company is using, how much it costs and where it is going.

>>> Environmental consultants can perform audits, and in some countries

>>> governments will pay for or subsidise the cost of the audit.

>>>

>>> Some obvious measures can yield the biggest savings: tracking down

>>> leaking pipes and fixing taps or valves. In offices, washroom taps can

>>> be fitted with sprays that use less water, and urinals equipped with

>>> sensors so that they do not flush when no one has been using them.

>>> Putting a bag in a toilet cistern will reduce its flush at almost no

>>> cost.

>>>

>>> The monetary savings can be sizeable: AstraZeneca found that it could

>>> recoup Aus$29,000 (£11,900) a year by reducing water usage at a

>>> manufacturing facility in Australia by 15m litres.

>>>

>>> Companies in areas that have been water-rich can benefit from following

>>> the example of areas with long experience of shortages. Australians are

>>> much more aware of the need to save water than Europeans.

>>>

>>> Sydney Water conducted a water audit on the Jessie Street Centre, a

>>> multi-storey office block in the Parramatta district of Sydney. The

>>> block halved its water usage by adding sensor controls to urinals that

>>> previously flushed continually; cutting the amount of water used in the

>>> irrigation system for the buildings gardens; reducing the flush in the

>>> 324 toilet cisterns; and adding a monitoring system to cooling towers to

>>> prevent overflows. The outlay was Aus$40,500, but the savings are

>>> estimated at $95,000 per year.

>>>

>>> Where water is particularly scarce, more advanced techniques come into

>>> their own. When DaimlerChrysler chose to build an assembly plant for

>>> Dodge Ram pick-up trucks in the middle of the Northern Mexico desert, it

>>> asked Siemens to install a water recycling system. This allows the plant

>>> to recycle more than 100,000 gallons of water a day, at a cost lower

>>> than that of buying and treating well-water.

>>>

>>> "Grey water" systems allow companies to take water from washroom sinks

>>> or from gutters and use it to flush toilets or water gardens. Porous

>>> pavements installed in car parks can catch water that would otherwise

>>> run off, and feed it into grey water systems.

>>>

>>> For many companies trying to save water, their utility will be the first

>>> port of call. Water companies may seem to have a vested interest in

>>> increasing water consumption, but in times of drought this is not the

>>> case. They are usually required by law to provide water to a certain

>>> standard at a certain price. As the resource becomes more scarce,

>>> finding new sources is more expensive, meaning it is in the companies’

>>> financial interest to keep wastage down.

>>>

>>> Fortunately for governments and water companies, campaigns to reduce

>>> consumption appear to work. In the south-east of England, water

>>> consumption since spring is down 10 per cent on last year, thanks to a

>>> hosepipe ban and a public information campaign.

>>>

>>> But Jacob Tompkins, director of Waterwise, warns that companies and

>>> individuals must grow into the habit of valuing water: "It is the small

>>> behavioural changes that people can make, such as always using a full

>>> load in the dishwasher and washing machine, or turning off the tap when

>>> brushing their teeth, that make the most crucial long-term savings."

>>>

>>>

>>> What do we do now the climate wolf is at the door?

>>>

>>> By Martin Wolf

>>>

>>> Published: July 11 2006 19:11 | Last updated: July 11 2006 19:11

>>>

>>> The little boy who cried "wolf" was finally proved right and was gobbled

>>> up as punishment for his earlier pranks. Malthusians have been crying

>>> wolf for a couple of centuries. But in global warming they may well have

>>> seen a real one. It would be wrong to say their warnings are being

>>> ignored. But they are certainly not receiving much practical attention.

>>> The Kyoto protocol now covers a mere 30 per cent of emissions, while its

>>> hard limits cover just 8 per cent. Is global warming a wolf at our door?

>>>

>>> The argument that it is starts with the observation that some

>>> an excellent thing since they make the earth’s surface temperature about

>>> 30ºC warmer than it would otherwise be. But, as concentrations of

>>> greenhouse gases rise, so will the the temperature (albeit only if other

>>> things remain equal). This, goes the argument, is what is happening.

>>>

>>> Since the 18th century, there has been a big increase in the output of

>>> man-made (anthropogenic) CO2, largely as a by-product of the burning of

>>> fossil fuels discussed here two weeks ago. Currently, emissions are

>>> running at 7bn tonnes a year, measured as carbon (just over one tonne

>>> per person). Concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere have risen from

>>> about 280 parts per million in the 18th century to 380 parts today. This

>>> is, say the scientists, higher than in the last 420,000 years and

>>> possibly the highest in 20m years (though levels have been higher still

>>> in the more distant past). The 10 warmest years on record have occurred

>>> since 1994, with an average global warming of 0.7ºC since 1900.

>>>

>>> CO2 concentration and temperature change

>>>

>>> Concentrations of CO2 are headed much higher still. Under plausible

>>> assumptions, human-caused emissions of greenhouse gases (which include

>>> water vapour, methane, nitrous oxide, as well as CO2) will tend to rise

>>> over the next half century. This is not only because of the rising use

>>> of fossil fuels discussed here last week. Bigger populations in

>>> developing countries also mean further deforestation. Moreover, while

>>> anthropogenic emissions make up only about 5 per cent of the natural

>>> exchanges between atmosphere, sea and land, their impact is cumulative,

>>> since about 60 per cent of our emissions stay there.

>>>

>>> If trends of the past half century were to continue, concentrations

>>> would reach 550 parts per million by 2050. That level would itself raise

>>> global temperatures by between 2.2ºC and 3.6ºC by 2100. The continents

>>> might warm by between 2.2ºC and 6.2ºC and the Arctic by between 3.6ºC

>>> and 11.4ºC. Such changes could well be associated with extreme events:

>>> reversal of the oceanic currents (notably the Gulf Stream); and the

>>> melting of permafrost and subsequent release of huge quantities of

>>> methane. Feedback effects might push temperatures higher than at any

>>> time in the last 50m years. The world would be a different place, as

>>> humans returned to the atmosphere the carbon extracted by photosynthesis

>>> and fossilised over millions of years.

>>>

>>> I have no intellectual difficulty with this argument, since it is

>>> grounded in scientific reasoning. Nevertheless, it raises several

>>> further questions. First, how certain are we of the magnitudes of

>>> potential warming? Second, how far is the warming itself a "bad thing"?

>>> Third, is there any chance that we will, in practice, find a workable

>>> way of dealing with it? Finally, what can and should we do about it,

>>> while taking into account both the benefits and the costs of any

>>> actions?

>>>

>>> Global CO2 emissions

>>>

>>> The answer to the first of these questions is that there remain

>>> substantial uncertainties in long-run climate forecasts, as can be seen

>>> from the ranges I have given. I sympathise with the climatologist here:

>>> forecasting the behaviour of complex systems is hard, as economists

>>> know. But the forecast direction of change at least seems plausible, to

>>> this scientific illiterate.

>>>

>>> The answer to the second question is trickier, at least to the lay

>>> person. It is, after all, not obvious why a warmer world would be such a

>>> bad thing. Most people and, for that matter, most of the world’s fauna

>>> and flora inhabit the warmer parts of the globe, for good reason. It is,

>>> by and large, easier to live there. There would certainly be

>>> beneficiaries of global warming, perhaps very many of them. But sudden

>>> changes impose huge costs of adjustment that would include the

>>> disappearance of habitats. Life would survive this, as it did the mass

>>> extinctions of the past, and so, almost certainly, would that most

>>> adaptable of species, humanity. But the adjustment would surely prove

>>> disruptive, with an overwhelming probability that the poor would suffer

>>> most, as Sir Nicholas Stern of the UK Treasury argues in his preliminary

>>> analysis of the economic issues.*

>>>

>>> The answer to the first is already quite clear: next to nothing.

>>> Emissions continue to rise, Kyoto or no Kyoto: since 1990, aggregate

>>> human emissions from fossil fuel consumption (and cement production)

>>> have risen at 1.1 per cent a year. Emissions per head may have

>>> stabilised, but world population is growing: it is forecast to reach 9bn

>>> by mid-century, up from 6.5bn today. Above all, emissions are above the

>>> level needed to stabilise concentrations of greenhouse gases (measured

>>> in CO2 equivalents) even at 550 parts per million.

>>>

>>> CO2 concentration and global CO2 emissions per head

>>>

>>> For that to happen, emissions in 2050 would need to be no greater than

>>> they were in 1990 (which was 12 per cent below 2002 levels) and as much

>>> as 50 to 60 per cent below levels forecast for 2050, on a business as

>>> usual, "fossil-fuel-first" scenario. It is important to note, moreover,

>>> that small reductions in emissions slow the speed at which the

>>> concentrations "travel", but not the destination they reach: as Steve

>>> Koonin, BP’s chief scientist, notes, even cutting CO2 emissions by 20

>>> per cent below current trends only postpones the date at which we reach

>>> 550 parts per million by 15 years. The cuts have to be bigger than this

>>> because what we put up stays up for 200 to 300 years.**

>>>

>>> A betting person who accepts the growing scientific consensus would

>>> wager that global warming is going, like the wolf, to gobble us up. But

>>> what could and should we do, instead? Are there technological fixes? Is

>>> there a policy regime that might be adopted and (unlike Kyoto) make a

>>> difference? Do the benefits of action outweigh the likely costs, or

>>> should we merely try to adapt? These are the questions to which I will

>>> turn in the final column in this series, next week.

>>>

>>> martin.wolf@ft.com

>>>

>>> *What is the Economics of Climate Change?, January 2006,

>>>

>>>

>>>

>>> Let’s talk about the weather - again

>>>

>>> By Matthew Engel

>>>

>>> Published: July 28 2006 19:29 | Last updated: July 28 2006 19:29

>>>

>>> This column comes to you from Manchester, the English city whose

>>> propensity for cold drizzle has long been part of folklore (with reason,

>>> in my experience). Travelling up from the south on Friday, I did not

>>> even bother to bring a sweater, never mind an umbrella. There is a

>>> change in the weather, and it is psychological as well as

>>> meteorological.

>>>

>>> The weather has always gone weird now and again, wherever we are. In

>>> every place, extremes turn into conversational touchstones that last as

>>> long as living memory. The British have the winter of 1963, the summer

>>> of 1976 and the storm of 1987; Chicago had the killer heatwave of 1995;

>>> the French shudder thinking about the heat of 2003.

>>>

>>> But normally these great exceptions are local, caused by strange

>>> goings-on in the jet stream. A drought in Manchester may mean that the

>>> Côte d’Azur is getting Mancunian rain. This summer is different. Day

>>> after day, the newspapers tell the same story across the northern

>>> hemisphere: from Abu Dhabi, Ajaccio and Algiers to Vienna, Washington

>>>

>>> Coastal California, usually balmy, has been nudging 45°C (113°F), a

>>> phenomenon described by Bill Patzert, a Nasa scientist in Pasadena, as

>>> "extreme makeover warming", saying that the state’s overdevelopment is

>>> partly to blame. Moaning Californians are unlikely to have noticed the

>>> similar temperatures in Iraq, where they are accompanied by the absence

>>> of fripperies such as electricity and water.

>>>

>>> For a global phenomenon, although colder, we might have to go back to

>>> 1816, "the year without a summer", when the world was shrouded in ash

>>> from the eruption of Mount Tamboro, causing global crop failure and food

>>> riots in Paris. This hot season may not have a name; it may hardly be

>>> remembered; it may be the first of many.

>>>

>>> How are we coping? We will talk about the politicians another day. The

>>> rest of us are beset by paradox. Air-conditioning companies cannot keep

>>> up with demand, even though we know that the installation of air

>>> conditioning in itself hastens climate change. Prices of coastal

>>> troposphere, in spite of the predictions of inundation from rising sea

>>> levels. In places such as Manchester, where summer used to be "three

>>> fine days and a thunderstorm", we relish the endless sunshine, even

>>> while fearing what it might mean.

>>>

>>> In that mood we approach August, the traditional time for Europeans and

>>> North Americans to bask, bake and relax while, perhaps, in the back of

>>> our minds, formulating ways of resolving our own problems in the cooler

>>> months ahead.

>>>

>>> But now it is the summer sunshine that is itself the problem. Perhaps

>>> a new realisation and determination that fatalism and complacency are no

>>> longer sensible options.

>>>

>>> The writer is an FT commentator on politics and sport

>>>

>>>

>>> Countries urged to overhaul water supply management

>>>

>>> By Fiona Harvey in London

>>>

>>> Published: August 23 2006 18:40 | Last updated: August 23 2006 18:40

>>>

>>> Radical reform of the way water supplies are managed is the only way to

>>> solve the world’s water crisis, governments have been told.

>>>

>>> The amount of water needed to grow food could be halved, scientists have

>>> told an international conference on water in Stockholm, which on Monday

>>> heard that one in three of the planet’s inhabitants were short of water.

>>>

>>> Although there was sufficient water for human needs, including

>>> agriculture and sanitation, poor management and distribution of water

>>> supplies had led to scarcities in large parts of the world.

>>>

>>> Frank Rijsberman, director general of the International Water Management

>>> Institute, said: "The last 50 years of water management practices are no

>>> model for the future when it comes to dealing with water scarcity."

>>>

>>> Most of the world’s fresh water is used for growing food but many of the

>>> practices employed are wasteful.

>>>

>>> Irrigation through open channels in hot countries results in a large

>>> amount of water evaporating before it reaches crops. Some crops that

>>> require a lot of water are being grown in areas that are unsuitable,

>>> requiring farmers to think about changing the crops they grow.

>>>

>>> But crops that are watered primarily by rain also waste water, as

>>> rainwater is allowed to run off land into streams and rivers, carrying

>>> valuable topsoil with it. Farmers can decrease the amount of run-off

>>> from their land using simple techniques such as ditches or dams.

>>>

>>> More of the world’s water that is under-used could also be used more

>>> efficiently, experts said. Brackish water, though not good for drinking,

>>> can easily be used for crops, as can fully or partially treated waste

>>> water and sewage.

>>>

>>> "If safe reuse of wastewater can be achieved, we can make an asset out

>>> of wastewater for farmers [close to urban areas]," Mr Rijsberman said.

>>> "In so doing, we can also help to make sanitation affordable to those

>>> now most affected by the health risks of poor quality water."

>>>

>>> Fully treated sewage can also be used for drinking water. But although

>>> widespread, this practice can be controversial, as a recent spat among

>>> the residents in Toowoomba in Australia over whether to recycle sewage

>>> showed.

>>>

>>> Increasing urbanisation around the world is also putting stress on water

>>> supplies, as people pile into cities that lack adequate water and sewage

>>> infrastructure. The International Water Management Institute said that

>>> governments should take more action to redirect water from agriculture

>>> to urban areas.

>>>

>>> Desalination, often touted as a solution, was not the answer, as it cost

>>> too much money and energy. Water shortages are often thought of as

>>> mainly affecting developing nations, but a study by the environmental

>>> group WWF found that climate change, loss of wetlands that store water,

>>> poorly thought out water infrastructure and resource mismanagement were

>>> also resulting in water shortages in rich countries.

>>>

>>> WWF found that countries on Europe’s Atlantic coast were suffering

>>> recurring droughts, while water- intensive tourism and irrigated

>>> agriculture were endangering water resources in the Mediterranean.

>>>

>>> In spite of high rainfall in Japan, contamination of water supplies has

>>> become a problem in many areas. The report contrasted Sydney and Houston

>>> as cities that consumed more water than was replenished from nature,

>>> with New York’s long tradition of conserving water in catchment areas

>>> and extensive green areas.

>>>

>>> As Jamie Pittock, director of WWF’s global freshwater programme, put it:

>>> "Economic riches don’t translate into plentiful water. Scarcity and

>>> pollution are becoming more common and responsibility for finding

>>> solutions rests with both rich and poor nations."

>>>

>>> --

>>> Kathrynne Holden, MS, RD < fivestar@nutritionucanlivewith.com >

>>> "Eat well, stay well with Parkinson's disease"

>>> "Parkinson's disease: Guidelines for Medical Nutrition Therapy"

>>>

>>> To be removed or added to the list, go to the web site

>>>

>>

>

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